The UN World Food Program’s (WFP) recent decision to terminate its primary aid initiative across Syria, effective since January 2024, is a significant and wide-reaching development. This decision was prompted by financial constraints and will effectively sever a vital lifeline for the 3.2 million beneficiaries who heavily rely on these essential food distributions to alleviate malnutrition.
The impact of these cutbacks will be magnified by worsening economic crises and escalating poverty, stemming from 13 years of continuous conflict. According to UN estimates, an alarming 90% of Syrians currently live below the poverty threshold, with 2.6 million individuals at risk of hunger.
The repercussions of the WFP’s cuts will be particularly acute in northwest Syria, where 2 million people live in over 1500 internal displacement camps. In these camps, women and children constitute nearly 80% of aid recipients, underscoring the heightened vulnerability of this demographic to the impending humanitarian crisis. These cutbacks will exacerbate the humanitarian and financial challenges, increase the risk of famine, and drive more people to consider leaving the country.
Cuts Amidst Rising Humanitarian Needs
The WFP’s decision to reduce aid to Syria did not come as a complete surprise. As global humanitarian needs reach unprecedented levels, the world’s attention on Syria diminishes amid other conflicts, donor fatigue, and the shrinking budgets facing humanitarian agencies. Consequently, only $1.8 billion out of the required $5.4 billion (33%) for the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria was funded by the end of the year – a significant decrease from the 52% funding achieved in the previous year.
In response to this trend, the WFP gradually reduced aid to Syria through a series of cutbacks, impacting both the number of beneficiaries and the size of food rations provided. The funding shortfall has also jeopardized operations in half of the nations where the WFP operates. However, as aid has dwindled, the humanitarian needs of the Syrian crisis has surged, with the UN recognizing 15.3 million individuals as in need.
As for 2024, humanitarian response plans for Syria indicate that available assistance will prioritize the most urgent needs. The program aims to transition from broad-scale general assistance to supporting families affected by emergencies and natural disasters through smaller, more targeted interventions. However, specific details regarding the distribution plan, selection mechanisms, and the number of beneficiaries remain unknown.
The Dire Crisis of Northwest Syria
Despite a decline in active conflict in Syria, the nation’s economic prospects have continued to worsen, driven by insufficient funding, rising inflation, and currency devaluation. The dire economic situation is particularly evident in the northwest, an opposition-held enclave where 86% of the population resides in camps and informal sites. Home to over 4.5 million people, this region has become a refuge for those displaced by violence and territorial expansion, mainly at the hands of the Syrian regime.
Unlike other parts of the country, the northwest experiences heightened levels of conflict, with ongoing artillery and aerial attacks by regime forces and their allies on civilian areas. This has resulted in significant casualties and frequent displacement. The situation was further exacerbated by the earthquake last February, which damaged over ten thousand buildings in the region and deepened the level of loss, vulnerability, and poverty which the local population already had to endure.
Presently, approximately 4.1 million individuals in the northwest require humanitarian assistance, with 3.7 million facing food insecurity. United Nations statistics also indicate that 1.4 million individuals are in urgent need of nutritional services in this already precarious region.
Amplifying Financial Hardship
The reduction in international funding for Syria is poised to worsen its existing humanitarian crisis. This development coincides with the onset of winter, a particularly challenging time for residents of camps heavily reliant on food aid. The distributed food baskets are crucial for each family, containing essential items like bread, rice, sugar, lentils, and vegetable oil.
Given that most essentials are provided in the basket, the meager earnings of beneficiaries in winter are usually allocated to additional necessities like fuel and firewood for heating. However, due to the funding cuts, this winter will prove exceptionally challenging, forcing people to prioritize purchasing essential food items over acquiring materials for heating.
Moreover, internally displaced persons (IDPs), among others, used to sell part of their food baskets to pay for other necessities like vegetables, medication, and fuel. Consequently, the loss of food assistance will diminish the coping abilities of IDPs.
The food cuts are also due to decelerate the economic wheel in northern Syria, as the food basket provided employment opportunities for many workers, including distributors, transport companies, packaging firms, and others.
Coping with Economic Turmoil
Filling the void left by vanishing aid will be extremely challenging amid the surge of poverty and unemployment. In May 2023, the cost of a standard food basket in Idlib for a family of five hit around 500,000 Syrian Pounds. Residents of the camps typically engage in irregular employment, earning a daily wage between 55 and 95 Turkish Lira (equivalent to approximately 35,000-45,000 Syrian Pounds). This means they must secure employment every other day to bridge the financial gap left by the absence of the food basket, leaving no funds for other crucial needs like bread, medication, transportation, clothes, fuel, rent, and vegetables.
Securing this amount, however, is exceedingly challenging due to the scarcity of job opportunities. The unemployment rate in northwestern Syria soared in November 2023, reaching 88.74% among the working-age population (encompassing day laborers). The situation becomes even more challenging for those who lack healthy breadwinners.
The food cuts will also weaken purchasing power as the prices of essential items in the markets, previously included in the basket, surge due to increased demand – especially since most of these commodities are imported. For example, the WFP aid cut last July resulted in a market price hike ranging from 14 to 66% for various items.
The Escalating Threat of Famine
The discontinuation of food aid intensifies the risk of famine. This will particularly impact children who relied on nutritional supplements for recovery from malnutrition, previously distributed alongside the food basket. With the removal of this crucial support, a generation of children faces increased vulnerability in an environment already characterized by displacement, upheaval, and poverty.
United Nations estimates indicate that 22.3% of children in northwest Syria suffer from growth impairments resulting from malnutrition. Additionally, 36.18% of children aged between six months and five years experience anemia. The percentage of children aged six months to two years receiving the minimum acceptable diet does not exceed 11%. Health workers anticipate these figures to escalate significantly after the cessation of food aid, potentially reaching 50 to 75% of affected children.
The repercussions also extend to families, compelling them to adopt unhealthy coping mechanisms such as withdrawing their children from school, child labor and drastic reductions in their daily food intake, precipitating a surge in child malnutrition.
Escalating Exodus
The repercussions of food cuts extend beyond the borders of Syria. The escalating financial and security challenges, coupled with limited opportunities, are likely to propel more Syrians, particularly those in northwest Syria, to seek better living conditions abroad. Even before these significant cuts, irregular migration had surged in recent years. According to Frontex, Europe’s border agency, the number of illegal border crossings by Syrians into the EU roughly doubled in 2022, soaring to 94,472. Asylum applications from Syria in the first half of 2023 surpassed any comparable period since the refugee crisis of 2015 to 2016.
As the imminent threat of famine looms over northwest Syria, there is a critical need for increased aid. However, donors should also consider a strategic transition from emergency humanitarian assistance to initiatives that foster economic recovery and enhance living conditions. While humanitarian aid is indispensable during emergencies, in prolonged conflicts like Syria’s, over-reliance on such aid can lead to unsustainable and perilous dependencies.
Without a pivot towards a more sustainable support model, the risk of exacerbating the suffering of Syrians remains high, compelling them to undertake perilous journeys in search of safer and more livable alternatives.
